We’ve been on the Blount bus for sometime, writing articles about the rarity of his rookie cards and the bright, bright future for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ second year back. Now, we’re going out on a relatively short limb and predicting that he will be the 2011 Breakout Player of the Year. Yep, Blount will be this year’s Arian Foster.
There’s very little not to like about Blount unless you go back to his college days when he cold-cocked a taunting rival. But that’s been two years now and I don’t want LeGarrette to babysit my daughters, I want him to leap over linebackers and truck corners with a rare combination of speed, athleticism and ungodly size.
All the variables stack positively for Blount. He’s on an up-and-coming team that has lightened his backfield rivals by letting Cadillac Williams go to St. Louis in free agency. He has a year in a pro offense under his belt. And keep in mind this guy had over 1,000 yards last year in just 13 games after being released by Tennessee who wish he was in camp there this year with Chris Johnson holding out.
By the way, Blount averaged a garish 5.0 yards per carry.
Regular readers will recall that Blount has very few rookie cards due to being undrafted and released. To give this some perspective, #1 overall pick Sam Bradford currently has 2,191 cards for sale on eBay. Blount has 227.
I won’t lecture you with obvious supply/demand metrics but it’s clear to see that if Blount can gain some degree of stardom there won’t be much out there. High end rookies are almost non-existent and even his 2010 Contenders Rookie Auto is a true short print.
Statistically, what do you see being the largest deciding factors in increasing a rookie card’s value? Championships? Pro-Bowls? Yards? Just curious to hear your take on it. Thank you very much, love the site.
~Eddie D.
Eddie, it’s always popularity because popularity creates buying demand. That’s why the best defensive player in the NFL won’t sell for a fraction of the tenth best skill player. So, you’ve got to look at what drives popularity. First off, it’s performance. That attracts interested parties most. Also, the team and location matters. If Andre Johnson was a Jet we’d have a million kids wearing his uniform. Some players are so good and charismatic that they can attract fans beyond their target market. That again, will be driven by performance and statistical achievement as well as championships. It’s definitely a multiple variable algorithm and you’ve just got to look for as many positive variables as possible… and value.